- Germany August import prices +1.0% vs +0.7% m/m expected
- Prior +0.2%
- Germany August import prices +8.3% vs +8.0% y/y expected
- Prior +6.8%
The breakdownMore to follow...
What does the data measure?The import price index tracks changes in prices paid by German buyers for goods imported from overseas. It provides an early indication of cost pressures entering the economy before they reach producers and consumers.
Why does it matter to markets?Import prices can offer clues on the direction of inflation, particularly for an economy such as Germany that is heavily exposed to imported energy and raw materials. Persistent increases can strengthen concerns that higher input costs will eventually feed through into consumer prices.
How does this fit the broader economic picture?Import inflation accelerated to 6.8% y/y in July, with energy prices up 26.4% and imported intermediate goods up 10.2%, largely reflecting the fallout from the Iran conflict and higher commodity costs.
What is the potential market impact?A stronger reading would be euro-positive and bund-negative/yield-positive at the margin as it reinforces upside inflation risks and could support more hawkish ECB expectations. A softer figure would ease some of those concerns, although the reaction is usually limited unless the surprise is sizeable.
Current relevance to markets?Moderate. Import prices are becoming more relevant as the energy shock feeds back into the European inflation picture, but Germany's September CPI release later today will carry substantially more weight for ECB expectations and the euro.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.