The latest monthly survey from the NY Fed:
- One-year inflation expectations unchanged at 3.6%
- Three year inflation expectations to 3.2% vs 3.3% prior
- Five year inflation expectations unchanged at 3%
- Expectations for higher unemployment at worst since April 2020
- Labor market expectations were 'mixed' overall
- Consumers projected higher future gasoline prices
- Views about current and future personal finance deteriorated
There isn't much good news in this report but for the Fed, the inflation expectations metric -- by far -- is the most important one and it doesn't argue for hiking this month. The market is pricing in a 57% chance of a hike.
Expectations for higher unemployment:
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.