Stronger readings from both surveys, ahead of a week-long Chinese holiday, give China-sensitive assets a supportive last data point before mainland markets close. The rise in manufacturers' input costs, driven by metals and oil, is the detail most relevant to commodity markets, since it suggests firms are absorbing higher energy and raw material prices rather than cutting purchases. Services firms cut selling prices at the fastest rate in almost four and a half years, which points to margin pressure and to deflationary competition in the sector even as activity picks up. Traders are likely to weigh these private-sector readings against the official surveys, and the gap between the two sets of data will matter for how much of the improvement the market believes.
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China's private-sector PMIs all rose in September, with manufacturing at a five-month high and services growth quickening, though services firms cut prices at the fastest pace in almost four and a half years.
Summary:
- The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 from 51.5, above the 51.6 forecast and the highest in five months, the tenth month above 50.
- The Services PMI rose to 51.6 from 51.4, above the 51.1 forecast, and marked the fastest growth in three months.
- The Composite PMI rose to 52.4 from 52.1, the strongest in three months but slightly below the 2026 average.
- Manufacturers reported the strongest input price inflation in four months, driven by metals and oil, and lifted selling prices slightly after a marginal cut in August.
- Services firms cut output prices for the first time in four months and at the fastest rate in almost four and a half years, while composite selling prices fell for the first time in nine months.
- New export orders rose in both sectors, and business confidence improved at the composite level to a four-month high.
- Earlier we had official PMIs, also improved: China official manufacturing PMI (September): 50.1 (expected 50.1, prior 49.8)
China's private-sector business surveys strengthened in September, with the RatingDog manufacturing and services PMIs both beating forecasts and pointing to firmer demand at home and abroad. The data, compiled by S&P Global and released at 01:45 GMT on Wednesday, September 30, arrived ahead of a week-long Chinese holiday that begins on Thursday.
The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.1 from 51.5 in August, above the 51.6 forecast and the highest reading in five months. It was the tenth consecutive month above the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Output rose at the fastest pace since April and new orders grew for a sixteenth month, with new export orders the strongest since February. RatingDog said some clients were also building safety stocks amid higher purchasing costs. Input price inflation was the strongest in four months, which firms attributed mainly to higher raw material prices, particularly for metals and oil, and manufacturers lifted their selling prices slightly after a marginal cut in August. Employment rose for the third time in four months, although only marginally.
The RatingDog China General Services PMI rose to 51.6 from 51.4, above the 51.1 forecast and the fastest expansion in three months, although RatingDog described growth as modest overall. New business rose at the quickest rate since June, and new export business accelerated for the first time in three months, extending its sequence of growth to five months, the longest since 2024. Employment rose for a fifth month, but at the slowest pace in four months. Prices diverged: input costs rose for the nineteenth month, though only marginally, while intense competition led firms to cut their selling prices for the first time in four months, at the fastest rate in almost four and a half years. RatingDog founder Yao Yu said the price cuts, set against continued cost increases, were squeezing margins and warranted attention.
The composite index, which weights manufacturing and services by their share of official GDP, rose to 52.4 from 52.1, its strongest reading in three months but slightly below the average for 2026 so far. Total new business, new export business, output and employment improved in both sectors, and business confidence reached a four-month high at the composite level. Cost pressures intensified, centred on manufacturing, while composite selling prices fell for the first time in nine months because of discounting in services.
RatingDog said it expects both the manufacturing and services PMIs to remain in expansionary territory in the near term.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.